Wednesday, April 29, 2015

NFL draft: the Dolphins and things that annoy me

Something I found annoying:

ESPN’s Bill Polian, on ESPN2's mock draft show: “The Dolphins need to run the ball. That offense is an off-shoot of Chip Kelly’s and is a running offense. So if Todd Gurley passed their physical, take Todd Gurley and don’t look back. He changes their whole team.”

Polian seemed like at least a halfway competent GM. And I get that he has to be able to talk about 32 teams. But damn, they do pay you to be able to know something about all of those teams. So it would help to know that the Dolphins were 12th in total rushing yards last season while being only 22nd in rushing attempts. That's because they were 2nd in yards per rush attempt. Most of that was due to Lamar Miller gaining 5.1 yards per attempt. (Note: I looked that up in about 5 minutes. What excuse do Polian and other pundits have for not knowing that information?)

Miller had an excellent season as the Dolphins' primary running back. Ryan Tannehill even had a good year running the ball, gaining 5.6 yards per attempt on his own. So what about the Dolphins' production running the ball last year suggested that they couldn't do so effectively? And what makes him think they won't be able to repeat that again without Todd Gurley?

Even if we grant that Todd Gurley is an Adrian Peterson type talent, how does that change the whole team? I'll grant that Peterson probably changes the way defenses play his offense. But is Gurley going to do that in his rookie year? After the year Lamar Miller had, how can we be sure he won't change the way defenses play?

Did you know that only twice in Adrian Peterson's entire career he has averaged more yards per carry than Lamar Miller did last season? Sure, it's possible that with more careers Miller's efficiency would decline. But it's also possible that the Dolphins' offensive line was not very good and he could replicate his efficiency with a better line.

All of this is to say that I hear a lot of people saying that the Dolphins should take a running back with their 1st round pick while completely ignoring what the team did last season with a player who is still playing on his rookie deal and who wasn't drafted in the 1st round. If you're going to buck the trend of not taking running backs high in the draft you're basically expecting them to be Adrian Peterson. But even if you are and they turn out to be him, it's not at all clear to me that those resources shouldn't be spent making sure your QB doesn't get sacked 50 times or that your defense doesn't collapse again.

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