Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Slow starts in baseball

That was the topic on "1st and 10" today. Let me ask you who you trust more to have a good season. Here are the career averages for each player and their current ages.

Player A: .330 BA, .424 OBP, .622 SLG, 42 HR, 127 RBI, age 31

Player B: .313 BA, .384 OBP, .452 SLG, 16 HR, 80 RBI, age 37

Which player do you think will have a better season? Which one do you think will come closer to matching their career averages? I think the answer is easily player A. Player A is Albert Pujols and Player B is Derek Jeter. Sure Pujols is in a contract year. But that should be even more reason he will do better.

The biggest factor is their age. Pujols is just coming out of his prime, possibly still in it. Jeter is well past his which was evidenced by his worst season of his career last year.

Yet both Jamelle Hill and Skip Bayless said they were more concerned about Albert Pujols. Most of their reasoning has to do with the contract thing with Pujols. But I think part of it is the Derek Jeter mystique. They both buy into the media created myth that Jeter is the second greatest thing to ever put on a Yankee uniform. But as any objective observer will note by looking at those numbers I posted, he isn't even that close to being as good as the best player in the game right now.

It would be shocking if Pujols didn't hit .300, get on base 40% of the time, hit 30 HRs, and drive in 100 runs. It wouldn't be shocking if Jeter didn't match his career averages because he didn't do so just last season. And he only got older since then. Its ridiculous to be more worried about Pujols than Jeter. But that's what happens when talking about "The Captain". Logic is like a breaking ball that is bounced in front of the plate.

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